How Will the End Come?

[Imarë]

What are the chances that an invasion will be used to topple the government of Kaldor? Let’s look at the prior conquests of the Parkhurst family. The first was Rethem. The capital is a coastal city and sits upon fairly good lines of transport and communication (both river and road). The city of Golotha, used as a springboard, was not taken by siege, it was taken by surprise. From there the troops which had been amassed on Anfla were able to be transported in and region taken control of (providing food and shelter for this army). From there it spread around the rest of the kingdom until the whole thing was under Parkhurst command. Once this was achieved, attention could be turned to the other two kingdoms in the vicinity (Kanday and the Thardic Republic). When all of these had been totally assimilated (under Arren II due to the untimely demise of Arren I), attention could be spared for the next piece of the puzzle, Orbaal. What is currently happening here is similar to what happened in Rethem. A small attack to provide a jumping off point where troops could be brought ashore and from there used to attack the remaining territory. This also provides a place for logistical support (food, fresh troops, and other supplies) to be brought in to sustain the attack (and bring back prisoners in chains to be paraded through the streets of Golotha). This is the process currently under way up north. What are the chances for something like this to occur in Kaldor? Low I would say. Kaldor is a land locked country, the Kald not being navigable for the kind of ships needed to bring troops and supplies for an attacking army. This would leave land attack. Having recently traversed the route from Tharda to Tashal, this is not really a practicable way to attack Kaldor. The supply lines would be enormous and would stretch through areas which are barely civilized (and would mean supply trains would have to be covered by troops due to the enormous size an army would need). In addition, any kind of surprise would be very difficult (several weeks in the open is hard to keep quiet). What are other alternatives? There is the route from the south, but that would mean taking on another of the Parkhurst possessions, Melderyn (through at least Thay, a city would be best). What is the likelihood of this happening? Would Arren II start an overt war with his uncle over this? I think from the message Lord Morgan sent to King Darabor that is unlikely. An attack, if he could arrange cooperation, through the Shava Forest (it has ports and is closer to Kaldor)? The distances would still be hard to overcome and, like Melderyn, why start a war with the Elves (I do not believe they would be an easy victory, not at least worth the price). Once either of these things happened, Kaldor would be alerted and would be able to build up her defenses and counter attack. What about using a newly acquired Orbaal as a jumping off point? The distance is still very great and would have to go through gargun country. The point of this lengthy summation is that a military solution would not be easy (or even very smart, the distances to take over a country would not be lessened to rule a country). Orbaal might provide a solution. Arren II sounds like he is going to plant an independent yet vassal type of government once he disposes of the Ivinians (who mostly would not play ball with Arren II). There are enough claimants for the throne of Kaldor that, with help, could supplant the current king and establish a government which would acknowledge the suzerainty of Tharda. The Parkhursts are not averse to waiting either, a judicious marriage between a Royal Duke and the progeny of the King of Kaldor (I don’t know if he has daughters or not, if not someone else could be chosen in line of succession and “accidents” happen to anyone else in line). Someone of importance in the country might want to improve his position (I think I heard the Earl of Balim is already related to the Parkhurst dynasty and he is not the only Earl). The possibilities here are endless and would not require an army to carry out (causing the uprooting of the farmers and merchants which cause economic problems). This is the way I would go. What do others think?

[Matt]

From there it spread around the rest of the kingdom until the whole thing was under Parkhurst command. Once this was achieved, attention could be turned to the other two kingdoms in the vicinity (Kanday and the Thardic Republic).

Don't forget that Arren of Melderyn had also coopted the Earls of Tormau and Ithiko. He would have had a much harder time gaining control of the kingdom without them.

Kaldor is a land locked country, the Kald not being navigable for the kind of ships needed to bring troops and supplies for an attacking army. This would leave land attack. Having recently traversed the route from Tharda to Tashal, this is not really a practicable way to attack Kaldor. The supply lines would be enormous and would stretch through areas which are barely civilized (and would mean supply trains would have to be covered by troops due to the enormous size an army would need).

This is correct, and affects the strategic calculus for the entire kingdom no matter what the direction. There are really only two places where the supply lines would be short enough to be managable: Lorkin and Chybisa. In addition, all the lines go through hostile territory either barbarian or gargun. Sea transport is quicker, cheaper, and safer.

There is the route from the south, but that would mean taking on another of the Parkhurst possessions, Melderyn (through at least Thay, a city would be best). What is the likelihood of this happening? Would Arren II start an overt war with his uncle over this?

It's unthinkable. What Arren II will do is a big question mark except for this one. Besides, why invade a kingdom of which you are second in line to the throne?

(I think I heard the Earl of Balim is already related to the Parkhurst dynasty and he is not the only Earl).

One of his cousins was Queen of Melderyn and Arren II's great-grandmother.

[Imarë]

When King Arren II met Imare at his wedding reception he did not go "nice to see one of the elder people here and by the way I would never attack my uncle to forward my plans in Kaldor". This would be the only way Imare would "know" that it was unthinkable. I decided to leave it open but discount it (the obvious answers to the questions I posed would be "not much" and "not likely"). Do we know who is destined for the vat of Mumsey in Melderyn?

[Matt]

When King Arren II met Imare at his wedding reception he did not go "nice to see one of the elder people here and by the way I would never attack my uncle to forward my plans in Kaldor". This would be the only way Imare would "know" that it was unthinkable."

Not at all - you yourself pointed out that Morgan's actions tended to support the idea that no such attack is likely. Darebor II's actions in connection with Sir Arlen also support it. Further, as one of the elder people, this is something you would 'know.' No member of the Royal family of Melderyn has ever raised a hand against the kingdom. And think of Tharda's 'Deryni' advantage over every kingdom of Harn save one being nullified. That would make planning difficult to say the least ...

Do we know who is destined for the vat of Mumsey in Melderyn?

If that were the plan, Darebor himself would have drunk deeply. What is the one thing Arren of Melderyn always was? Think of how he treated illegitimate offspring. How was Melderyn represented at the wedding? By Darebor and Arren's youngest brother.

No, Arren II will not raise a hand against Melderyn and all the signs are there. (But, if you want more, then consider me the source. ) This, of course, means nothing for Kaldor as I noted above, were an attack to come from the south, Melderyn need not be the base as Chybisa is much closer.

[Lord Ewen]

The Parkhursts are not averse to waiting either, a judicious marriage between a Royal Duke and the progeny of the King of Kaldor (I don’t know if he has daughters or not, if not someone else could be chosen in line of succession and “accidents” happen to anyone else in line).

King Haldan has one daughter, his eldest child Erlene. She married Scina Dariune three years ago on her 18th birthday. (Yes, the same fellow Baris and I are to befriend at the Courtesan's hall; he was also at Lady Cheselyne's party.) Erlene's brothers are the Princes Brandis and Torasa, who would be about 18 and 16 respectively, Brandis of course being the heir to the crown. I gather Haldan's in his mid-forties and his queen past forty herself.

I broadly agree with your logistical analysis of the difficulties of invading Kaldor, but I do not rule out an overt overthrow of the Elendsa dynasty by Tharda. I think the logic of your reasoning suggests that internal manipulation, subversion, and corrosion of the situation in Kaldor prior to any casus belli will need to be even more comprehensive and telling than it was in the instance of Tharda's previous conquests, given the difficulties of marching a foreign army into Kaldor. Which puts our own presence in Kaldor into some context, as it were.

As for the two potential launching points for an Arrenic invasion of Kaldor, the Lorkin scenario certainly seems imaginable as a sequel to a successful conquest of Orbaal. The other launching point, Chybisa, is worthy of consideration, though. Leads one to naturally wonder what kind of preliminary operations might be going on down there at this time, in terms of Thardic agents, etc. And perhaps the most appealing scenario would involve the use of both launching stages simultaneously, although the logistics of this would certainly be the most challenging.

Economically speaking, it seems to me that effective interdiction of the four major trade routes into Kaldor would do much to bring the kingdom to its knees in fairly short order, putting incredible pressure on the Elendsas. But the impact of such a move on other kingdoms might mitigate the plausibility of this. The likely impact on Tharda itself of a disrupted Salt Route is huge, and the dicey issue of pissing off the Kingdom of Azadmere by interfering with the Silver Way is a problem, as well. But an all-out war is likely to effect considerable disruption of these trade routes anyway, so perhaps the strategy will be on the table in spite of such arguments against. And the promise of a Kaldor under the Thardic throne, with robust trading along all four routes re-established and protected by new Thardic Legions in the wake of a war, might be used as a means of appeasing a kingdom such as Azadmere during the interim. And I suspect the prospect of the dwarves marching to Kaldor's defense is unlikely, and at any rate would likely be dealt with behind the scenes by the Thardic Parkhursts.

[Imarë]

For argument lets say that Tharda invades and conquers Kaldor and brings it into the fold. The distances involved would make ruling such a kingdom very unwieldy. We, as a party, know that there is something which enables the Morganettes to travel vast distances in (we think) considerably shorter time and effort. You will notice that they never acknowledge there is such a power. Nor do they, on the whole, broadcast that they have any powers whatsoever. We have seen the Morganettes and Lord Morgan do small things (the same with Lord Graver). The showiest thing we have ever heard of was arcane duels fought by Arren I against King Andasin and Arren II against his brother Arabar. We don’t know if this involved anything visible to be seen. This to me would indicate that even if every deryni possessed this power, they would be not want to use it openly to rule a widespread kingdom (I am making the assumption much like the Shek P-Var they do not like to use their power openly). The vast distance would make a single government problematic at best. The split concept seems a much more logical way (at this time) to have in place. It would also make the personal takeover of Melderyn not necessary (a Parkhurst would still be in control). I believe in the talks we had with Lord Morgan the plan is not to have Orbaal (or whatever its new name shall be) be part of the kingdom of Tharda. It would be independent yet owing fealty to the crown.

On the question of succession, I notice that Arren II displaced his legitimate (yet only half deryni) older brother to take over Tharda. This, to me, establishes a pattern here. If something were to happen to Darabor II, I would not rule out the possibility that Arren II might see himself as the better successor (hence a vat of mumsy).

[Imarë]

I did forget the time when a number of people at the Laranian service in Coranan glowed. I don't know if that was a derni power or not, but it was certainly not in the middle of the square that it occured.

[Matt]

The showiest thing we have ever heard of was arcane duels fought by Arren I against King Andasin and Arren II against his brother Arabar.

The duel with King Andasin was fought with lance and sword, not magic.

On the question of succession, I notice that Arren II displaced his legitimate (yet only half deryni) older brother to take over Tharda. This, to me, establishes a pattern here. If something were to happen to Darabor II, I would not rule out the possibility that Arren II might see himself as the better successor (hence a vat of mumsy).

No, the rationale in 725 was that "no half-Deryni should ascend the throne." That is manifestly not the case with either King Darebor or his son Prince Chunel. Further, it was a challenge and duel, not a knife in the dark.

If Arren II is to succeed to the throne of Melderyn, it will not be by Richard III's methods.

[Imarë]

This all gets off my point that a single kingdom would be hard to maintain without using deryni powers we think exist to travel between the Tharda and Kaldor. It would more sense, in my book, to have two affiliated kingdoms rather than one king. As long as they were either Parkhursts or loyal to Parkhursts it would not matter.

The points about Arren II are good (being in charge would kind of make them authoritative anyway). Another good one would be his Laranianism. On reflection, an action like that would not be honorable for him (maybe Lord Graver is less devout?). Arren I might show up in your bedroom and kill your entire family but rumor has it he was not a Laranian.

[Matt]

This all gets off my point that a single kingdom would be hard to maintain without using deryni powers we think exist to travel between the Tharda and Kaldor.

True, but my comments on these types of threads are more in the line of clarifications and corrections. I don't like to comment on other ideas as this is the place where you guys can "think out loud" as it were, and it would be wrong for the GM to try to steer or influence such a conversation.

[Lord Ewen]

This to me would indicate that even if every deryni possessed this power, they would be not want to use it openly to rule a widespread kingdom ... The vast distance would make a single government problematic at best.

While I don't discount your overall conclusion that Kaldor as a vassal kingdom of Tharda is a tenable outcome of war, I do have a problem with your logic here. Why would the use of Deryni power to coordinate a large kingdom spanning the breadth of Harn, from Golotha to Kaldor say, need to be "open"? So long as Kaldor is administered by a Deryni vassal under Arren II's crown (or for that matter by a non-Deryni vassal with Deryni advisors), I suspect that very effective coordination could be conducted by means of such arcane power without any of the strings being visable save to the very innermost members of the crown's court.

Also, I think we might be misled as well in our reasoning by our provincial upbringing on an island off the coast of Lythia. We are used to a small scale of things, and the distance from Tharda to Kaldor seems vast to us. I suspect, however, that kingdoms on the continent geographically span much greater terrain than we are used to on Harn. And remember that Arren I spent time on the continent in his younger days and probably thinks on a grander scale than most. Your point about the wild nature of the intervening land between Tharda and Kaldor is significant, though, and clearly any grand scheme by the Parkhursts will need to address both the gargun issue as well as the numerous barbarian tribes in the long run. While administration of an island-wide kingdom could be pulled off by Deryni skills behind the scenes perhaps, more mundane ties that bind a cohesive kingdom together are important as well: safe kingdom-wide travel, commerce, coordination of military resources, etc.