The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

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The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

Postby Sir Aeomund » Sat Oct 26, 2013 6:39 pm

Why are these guys who are in a position to already inherit positions in the realm, high ones, willing to roll the dice for possible minor gain by overthrowing the King?
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Re: The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

Postby Lord Ewen » Sun Oct 27, 2013 10:52 am

Thanks for kicking this off. A few preliminary thoughts:

1. The answer for Prehil is obvious: he would get to be king himself after Orsin dies.

2. Meden, on the other hand, may be playing a more devious game, where he sees the "superior" lineage of clan Curo coming out on top in the wake of the chaos of overthrowing Haldan's branch of clan Elendsa. The fact that he pointed out his father's feelings about their lineage to Ewen might have betrayed the fact that this issue is prominent in his mind at this time. But he needs an Elendsa heir to justify overthrowing Haldan in the first place, as proposing the toppling of the entire dynasty is not going to fly right now. But he may feel that, down the road, when the Rubicon of lèse-majesté has been crossed, he can subsequently betray the Firiths and try for the crown himself. Sort of a slippery-slope kind of plan.

3. While we perhaps assume Prehil is the man we have come to know in his apparent presentation, we can't discount the possibility that he, not Meden, is the instigator behind this, and is far more conniving than his bluff exterior suggests. Don't know. Just saying.

4. I doubt Meden would support a Firith coup without exacting major concessions. Hemisen Curo has long considered himself the Lion of the North, and the cub may be angling for a significant expansion of the northern holdings, even Olokand itself. After all, the north may be available on a bit of a discount since the vikings began marauding up there.

5. What are we to make of Scina's previous meeting with Meden, which took place while Prehil was absent fetching us? Given how closely Balim has yoked his plow to the present ruling Elendsa branch, is it likely Meden would have risked feeling Scina out on a plan to displace Prince Brandis, given the consequences if his father found out and saw it in his best interest to take it to the King? After all, Balim may well feel that he would have a better chance of controlling Brandis than Orsin Firith. Or was that meeting restricted to polling Scina on the possibility of putting Sir Ewen in Ternua? Or something else? Does Scina's negative attitude and abrupt departure suggest his disapprobation of either aspect of these schemes? If not, why not stay and participate further in such kingdom-shaking deliberations? Prior dinner engagement?
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Re: The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

Postby Matt » Mon Oct 28, 2013 2:19 pm

Sir Aeomund wrote:possible minor gain by overthrowing the King?

Something may have been lost in translation on this one - Sir Meden was not talking about overthrowing Haldan III, he was talking about a different succession should Haldan die. He was taking the position that Orsin Firith would be a better king under the circumstances than Prince Brandis. More on this below.


Sir Ewen wrote:1. The answer for Prehil is obvious: he would get to be king himself after Orsin dies.

Just so.

Sir Ewen wrote:2. Meden, on the other hand, may be playing a more devious game, where he sees the "superior" lineage of clan Curo coming out on top in the wake of the chaos of overthrowing Haldan's branch of clan Elendsa. The fact that he pointed out his father's feelings about their lineage to Ewen might have betrayed the fact that this issue is prominent in his mind at this time. But he needs an Elendsa heir to justify overthrowing Haldan in the first place, as proposing the toppling of the entire dynasty is not going to fly right now.

Yes, it is clear Meden sees himself in the role of the 'kingmaker' here, but how far that goes is unclear at this time. He may just have the best interests of the realm in mind ...

Sir Ewen wrote:3. While we perhaps assume Prehil is the man we have come to know in his apparent presentation, we can't discount the possibility that he, not Meden, is the instigator behind this, and is far more conniving than his bluff exterior suggests.

If so, Prehil just became the most dangerous man in the room. (Except for Ewen, of course. :twisted: )

Sir Ewen wrote:4. I doubt Meden would support a Firith coup without exacting major concessions.

Kingmakers always have a price. Often they end up overreaching however.

It ought to be noted that while I have not used the clan system of succession in the campaign, in a historical sense, it's not so far back in Kaldoric history. Indeed, Haldan III's grandfather, King Torastra, was initially passed over in favor of his non-Elendsa mother because he was deemed too green for the throne. That Queen, Chelebin III, is the one who founded the eponymous tourney. Torastra ultimately succeeded her but only when she died in 669. This event is almost in living memory, and so what Meden is proposing, while probably treacherous, is not so treacherous as to rise to the level of treason.
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Re: The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

Postby Lord Ewen » Tue Oct 29, 2013 9:51 am

That is a useful distinction, perhaps, but the present scheme lies much closer to treason than the historical example you cite, no? After all, Chelebin's reign only delayed her son's ascension to the throne, while in Meden's scenario Brandis would be irrevocably usurped by the Firith line, as I understand it. Brandis having already reached his majority, a situation where Firith ruled as a regent for him would be rather irregular, I should think, and not at all what Meden intends.

Arguing from historical example (see Roses, War of the), this sort of situation usually devolves into a bloodbath. Is there anything in the case of Kaldor which mitigates this likely outcome? Lack of sufficient support for Brandis, I suppose. If Balim forsakes him, then perhaps a change of succession could avoid significant bloodshed (although I am not suggesting that other peers (Caldeth?) might see it in their interest to thwart Firith and those behind him). But then what do you do with Brandis? The block? Exile, with a threat of him returning with a foreign army? (Hmmm...)

At any rate, turmoil or open war within Kaldor would generally be to our advantage, insomuch as it weakens the kingdom, enhances our power, and creates opportunities to exploit things with a view toward overthrow. And bloodshed would be fun. As long as we keep our heads, that is.
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Re: The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

Postby Matt » Tue Oct 29, 2013 1:35 pm

Sir Ewen wrote:That is a useful distinction, perhaps, but the present scheme lies much closer to treason than the historical example you cite, no?

If one views Brandis's accession as automatic, then yes. However, even Haldan III was briefly challenged by Maldan Harabor. It was the support of Balim AND the Serekela that headed off civil war in that instance (knowledge of Sir Aeomund and possibly Cekiya).

Sir Ewen wrote:Brandis having already reached his majority, a situation where Firith ruled as a regent for him would be rather irregular, I should think, and not at all what Meden intends.

Clearly not - Meden was suggesting Orsin succeed Haldan as king should the latter die.

Sir Ewen wrote:Arguing from historical example (see Roses, War of the), this sort of situation usually devolves into a bloodbath.

Typically. I would argue the present situation is more analogous to Stephen and Matilda but the result was still gory. The Plantagenet genocide was the result of an actual deposition and usurpation, though it took nearly three generations, a couple of beheadings in the interim, and a very weak king to bring about the open conflict. And a French princess. Never forget the meddling of French princesses ...

Sir Ewen wrote:Is there anything in the case of Kaldor which mitigates this likely outcome? Lack of sufficient support for Brandis, I suppose.

It helps to think of the factions, which I was suggesting in the last thread, and basically ask "what's in it for them?" Right now, as Tom has correctly noted, very little. Haldan lives and is secure on his throne with the support of Balim and others. It seems unlikely that anyone would move against him, so this becomes a question of who supports Brandis.

Before answering that question, however, one must address your question of mitigation. Laying aside the great nobles, there are several factions which could tip the balance. Presumably, any majority combination would trump, but there is a relative power differential. Thus:

The Laranians are a question mark. Sir Aeomund is assuming they will support Brandis - too soon to tell. The Serekela originally opposed Haldan, and then supported him for reasons unknown. No doubt a deal was struck. Does that hold for another generation? Do not forget that Meden's mother is the Serekela's sister. As the Serekela goes, so go the Laranians.

Then there is Melderyn. What power/influence can Sir Arren Lydel bring to bear? Melderyn has treaded carefully in recent years, but this is not Tharda or Orbaal. Would they feel that a King Orsin would be a destabilizing force? Or, might they think he's just the thing to stabilize the Oselmarch?

The Shek Pvar are not supposed to interfere yet they already have.

There is Tharda itself in the person of Stimos. He has worked hand in glove with you, but he answers to Arren II, not to you. Speaking of which, how many Deryni were wandering around Olokand?

The second-tier knightly families of the larger holdings should not be discounted. Clans like the Valadors, the Labarns, the Delwarnes, etc. There are anywhere from seven to 17 of these depending on how you slice them. Each holds at least four manors and a couple have more than 10,000 acres. Save for the Thilisa angle, Sir Ewen falls into this category. These families could be viewed as a proxy for the knightly class as a whole.

The Mangai is another factor. How have they responded to the recent unpleasantness? You don't really know. Ditto Azadmere.

And then there is you.

Sir Ewen wrote:If Balim forsakes him, then perhaps a change of succession could avoid significant bloodshed (although I am not suggesting that other peers (Caldeth?) might see it in their interest to thwart Firith and those behind him).

Clearly, if Balim forsakes Brandis, he's finished. At that point, Balim is either making a play for the throne himself or is backing another candidate.

Sir Ewen wrote:But then what do you do with Brandis? The block? Exile, with a threat of him returning with a foreign army? (Hmmm...)

It's not just Brandis. There is his brother Torasa, his sister Erlene (married to Scina Dariune) and Haldan's siblings, four of which live. Two are Peonians and thus arguably out, one is a Laranian and thus likely out, but the other is married to Harapa Indama. Certainly Brandis and Torasa would be the most serious impediments.

Sir Ewen wrote:At any rate, turmoil or open war within Kaldor would generally be to our advantage, insomuch as it weakens the kingdom, enhances our power, and creates opportunities to exploit things with a view toward overthrow. And bloodshed would be fun. As long as we keep our heads, that is.

See above. There is a reason Meden and Prehil came to you (among, apparently others). They see you as a significant enough player to cultivate. This creates leverage. Now, in the past, I have created such scenarios before and you guys have taken them in directions not foreseen by your humble GM. More than once in fact. So how you decide to use that leverage is entirely up to you, but it occurs to me that the idea of a tourney just got a lot better.
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Re: The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

Postby Sir Aeomund » Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:54 pm

The tourney is a good venue to plot with and meet others without raising suspicion.
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Re: The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

Postby Sir Aeomund » Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:55 pm

Also, the succession on the death of the king is a whole different issue to Aemond than killing said king.
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Re: The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

Postby Matt » Thu Nov 07, 2013 6:30 pm

Sir Aeomund wrote:The tourney is a good venue to plot with and meet others without raising suspicion.

Most definitely (as the GM rubs his hands together evilly ...)
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Re: The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

Postby Lord Ewen » Thu Nov 07, 2013 9:13 pm

Given where the last session left off, it seems to me that the first order of business next time will be for Sir Ewen to roll to Truth Read Lord Curo. While passing that roll should certainly not be taken for granted, it might not hurt to preload some questions here which might be useful in getting a handle on whether the current meeting is what it seems, or something different, how honest Curo is being, etc. Suggestions?
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Re: The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

Postby Sir Aeomund » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:39 pm

Curo's relationship with Scina certainly is an issue that needs to be explored. I'm uncertain of where Curo really stands, so nailing him to things via truth read I think would generally be helpful.

In regard to the larger meta picture as cool as it would be to have Firith be King the realm governed weakly by Brandis, who is our ally, may be more valuable to our overall cause.
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Re: The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

Postby Lord Ewen » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:52 pm

Or, perhaps even better, a really nasty, debilitating civil war over the succession. Maybe we should consider which factors have prevented previous succession crises in the past from devolving into warfare, and look into the possibility of undermining or circumventing them this time around.
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Re: The Treacherous Plan to Elevate Clan Firith

Postby Arva » Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:44 am

Sir Ewen wrote:Or, perhaps even better, a really nasty, debilitating civil war over the succession. Maybe we should consider which factors have prevented previous succession crises in the past from devolving into warfare, and look into the possibility of undermining or circumventing them this time around.


I agree with that. There is nothing like a quaint civil war to set the economy back a number of years and thin the herd of noble youths. Don't forget that the Lady of Paladins have been split, so there is about half the usual number that the king/Brandeis could count on for help (if they even get involved in such things).
I feel like a new person....
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